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经济科学 - 2020, Vol. 42(3): 31-45
“中巴经济走廊”周边国家恐怖主义与出口贸易——一个引力模型的新研究范式
Terrorism and Exports in the Peripheral Countries of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A New Research Paradigm of Gravity Model

陈继勇1, 李知睿2
Chen Jiyong1, Li Zhirui2

1.武汉大学经济发展研究中心 湖北武汉 430072
2.武汉大学美国加拿大经济研究所 湖北武汉 430072
1. Center for Economic Development Research, Wuhan University
2. Institute of US and Canada Economies, Wuhan University

出版日期: 2020-06-17
2020, Vol. 42(3): 31-45
DOI: 10.12088/PKU.jjkx.2020.03.03


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摘要 恐怖主义活动会抑制国家间出口贸易的发展,但不同类型的恐怖主义活动对出口贸易的影响机制具有异质性。本文以“中巴经济走廊”周边国家为研究对象,运用调整设定的引力模型,实证检验了2005—2015年不同类型的恐怖主义活动对出口贸易的异质性影响及其传导机制。研究表明:国内、跨国恐怖主义活动显著抑制了出口贸易,后者的贸易干扰与破坏能力明显高于前者,短期内这种干扰与破坏能力是有限的。国内、跨国恐怖主义活动对出口贸易的负面效应带有中长期特征,后者的动态效应在中长期内衰减速率较前者更快。进一步研究发现,跨国恐怖分子更青睐于对短距离出口贸易实施破坏性干扰。另外,目的国经济发展水平越高,出口对跨国恐怖主义负面效应的敏感度越弱,而来源国经济发展水平越高,出口对国内恐怖主义负面效应的敏感度越强。
关键词 中巴经济走廊国内恐怖主义跨国恐怖主义出口贸易引力模型    
Abstract:Terrorist activities impede the development of exports between countries. However, the impact of different types of terrorist activities on export is heterogeneous. Taking the peripheral countries of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for example, this paper employs the modified gravity model to empirically examine heterogeneous impacts of different types of terrorist activities and their specific transmitting channels from 2005 to 2015. The study indicates that domestic and transnational terrorist activities significantly impose adverse effects on export flows, with the latter being significantly more disruptive and interfering than the former. In the short term, the degree to which these activities can interfere and destroy is limited. The negative effects of domestic and transnational terrorist activities on exports have medium and long-term characteristics, and the latter's dynamic effects decay faster than the former in the medium and long run. A further investigation finds that transnational terrorists are more inclined to attack export activities in short distance. In addition, the higher the level of economic development in the destination country, the weaker the sensitivity of exports to the negative impact of transnational terrorism, while the higher the level of economic development of the original country, the stronger the sensitivity of exports to the negative influence of domestic terrorism.
Key wordsChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor    Domestic terrorism    Transnational terrorism    Export    Gravity model
ZTFLH:  D815.5  
基金资助:本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目“‘一带一路’相关国家的贸易竞争与互补关系研究”(项目编号:16ZDA039)的阶段性成果,同时受到国家建设高水平大学公派研究生项目(项目编号:201806270065)和武汉大学研究生出国(境)联合培养专项经费的资助
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