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经济科学 - 2019, Vol. 41(2): 27-39
城投债影响经济增长——规模与资金用途结构的作用

杨云

北京大学国家发展研究院 北京 100871

出版日期: 2019-04-24
2019, Vol. 41(2): 27-39
DOI: 10.12088/PKU.jjkx.2019.02.03


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摘要 如何有效利用城投债资金促进经济增长是一个广受关注的议题。本文在一个内生经济增长框架下考察了城投债对经济增长的影响,并在此基础上利用中国2008—2016年城市层面的数据检验了城投债与经济增长的关系。理论分析表明,由于同时受到经济增长率和实际债务利息率的影响,城投债对经济增长的影响是不确定的;公共基础设施领域城投债资金比例上升将会促进经济增长。估计结果表明,城投债规模增大对经济增长影响不明显,且二者之间不存在明显的倒U形关系。进一步来看,公共基础设施领域的城投债比率上升显著促进了经济增长,这为政府有效利用城投债资金提供了启示。
关键词 城投债内生经济增长基础设施结构效应    
ZTFLH:  F812.5  
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