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经济科学 - 2021, Vol. 43(3): 121-135
经济政策不确定性与参照点效应
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Reference Point Effect: Evidence from Chinese Firms on M&A Premium

国文婷1, 陈冀伟2
Guo Wenting1, Chen Jiwei2

1.华东师范大学经济与管理学部 上海 200062
2.信阳师范学院财务处 河南信阳 464000
1. Department of Economics and Management, East China Normal University
2. Financial Office, Xinyang Normal University

发布日期: 2021-06-18
2021, Vol. 43(3): 121-135
DOI: 10.12088/PKU.jjkx.2021.03.10


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摘要 本文以2007—2019年中国公司收购境内外上市目标公司的并购案例为研究对象,发现目标公司国家经济政策不确定性会增强参照点效应,即不确定性会正向调节参照点对并购溢价的影响。拓展研究发现,对于私有性质收购方或通过债务方式融资的收购方,该调节效应更大;在股市震荡时期或并购金融及地产类目标公司时,参照点效应更容易受不确定性的影响;更进一步地,好的外部治理环境、较强的收购方流通能力、聘请财务顾问、实施横向并购、采用股票支付方式,可以降低不确定性对参照点效应的影响。
关键词 经济政策不确定性并购溢价参照点效应    
Abstract:This paper takes M&A of Chinese firms acquiring domestic and overseas listed targets from 2007 to 2019 as the subject, and finds that the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of the country where the target firms locate significantly enhances the reference point effect in M&A premium decision, that is, EPU positively moderates the effect of reference point on M&A premium. Extended results show that the moderating effect is greater for private acquirers or debt-financed acquirers; the reference point effect is more likely to be affected by EPU when the stock market is volatile or when the target firms of finance and real estate are acquired. Furthermore, good external governance environment, strong liquidity capacity of acquirer, financial advisers, horizontal M&A and stock payment methods can reduce the impact of EPU on the reference point effect.
Key wordseconomic policy uncertainty    M&A premium    reference point effect
ZTFLH:  F272  
基金资助:* 本文为国家自然科学基金青年项目“全球价值链下的企业并购研究:基于网络分析的方法”(项目编号:71803048)、华东师范大学经济与管理学部博士研究生科研创新计划一般项目“信息不对称条件下并购溢价决策的锚定效应研究”(项目编号:2018FEM-BCKYB010)的阶段性成果。
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