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人口与发展 - 2017, Vol. 23(6): 14-25
基础教育与人口集聚——基于地级市面板数据的分析
Primary Education and Population Agglomeration ——A Study Based on Prefectural Panel Data

王智勇
Zhi-yong WANG

中国社会科学院 人口与劳动经济研究所,北京 100028
Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China

收稿日期: 2017-09-06
出版日期: 2018-03-08
2017, Vol. 23(6): 14-25


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摘要 

随着社会经济的发展,人口流动与集聚已经成为中国经济发展的一个基本特征。然而,影响人口集聚的原因和机理仍需进一步探究。理解人口流动和集聚的内在机制有助于推动新型城镇化建设、疏解大都市区人口以及建设新城区。在流动人口大军中,教育迁移的比例不断提高,教育迁移成为人口集聚的一个重要原因。利用1989-2010年期间地级市面板数据,采用系统GMM方法,提出基础教育与人口集聚之间先后呈现倒U型和U型关系,表明基础教育规模显著影响了人口集聚,而教育迁移成为促进人口集聚的一个新动力,特别是在2005年以来,教育迁移加速了人口集聚的趋势。因而,在建设新型城镇化以及大都市疏解人口过程中,应充分重视基础教育的引导作用,促成人口集聚与疏导人口合理布局。

关键词 基础教育人口集聚地级市面板数据    
Abstract

As the social and economic development of China,population agglomeration has become a basic characteristic during economic growth.However,features that affect population agglomeration as well as its mechanism still need to be probed into deeply.Understanding the essential mechanism of population agglomeration helps to promote the new type of urbanization,to real locate metropolitan population and to construct new urban areas.Among the migrants,the ratio of those migrants for primary education has increased steadily.Thus educational migration has become an important reason for population agglomeration.Based on prefectural panel data during 1989 to 2010,with SYS GMM,the author concluded that there is a close relationship between primary education and population agglomeration,which takes on a reverse U shape and U shape successively.Thus it has been proved that primary education scale affect population agglomeration distinctively and migration for education has become a new driving force for population agglomeration,especially for periods after 2005 with education accelerating population agglomeration.Attention should be paid on primary education for its guiding function so as to promote population agglomeration and real location during the process of new type of urbanization as well as metropolitan population control.

Key wordsPrimary Education    Population Agglomeration    Prefectural Panel Data
ZTFLH:  C922  
基金资助:获国家自然科学基金应急管理项目(71641034)和中国社会科学院创新工程项目(RKSCX2017014)资助
作者简介:

作者简介:王智勇(1975—),男,中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所研究员。

  2000年县区常住户籍人口差
  2010年县区常住户籍人口差
  北京市初中在校生数量与常住人口数量对比
变量名 含义 样本量 均值 标准误 最小值 最大值
popd 人口(地区) 4,153 344.306 286.359 9.98 4044.31
popc 人口(市区) 4,143 102.490 119.349 8.46 1289.13
invc 固定资产投资(市区) 4,173 496522.100 1481774.000 0 3.08E+07
edumc 中学生数量(市区) 4,221 25.211 853.781 0 39293
wagd 平均工资(地区) 4,076 6537.181 4373.209 9.81 41090
wagc 平均工资(市区) 4,135 7031.806 5184.547 605.3 141387
edupc 每万人大学生数(市区) 3,696 48.792 77.511 0 1089.111
coast 沿海 4,298 0.375 0.484 0 1
yeardum 年份 4,298 0.449 0.497 0 1
  变量的描述性统计(1989-2004)
(1)
lnpopd
(2)
lnpopd
(3)
lnpopc
(4)
lnpopc
L.lnpopd 0.682*** 0.684***
(0.0334) (0.0340)
L.lnpopc 0.759*** 0.803***
(0.0485) (0.0430)
lninvcd 0.0820*** 0.0788*** 0.0269*** 0.0256***
(0.0226) (0.0230) (0.00942) (0.00921)
lnedumc 0.137*** 0.210*** 0.178*** 0.227***
(0.0308) (0.0427) (0.0380) (0.0511)
lnedumcsq -0.0147*** -0.0143***
(0.00386) (0.00495)
lnwaged -0.0373 -0.0416
(0.0289) (0.0293)
lnwagec -0.0794*** -0.0932***
(0.0229) (0.0220)
lnedupc -0.112*** -0.113***
(0.0172) (0.0170)
lnedupcc -0.0128*** -0.0148***
(0.00424) (0.00393)
coast 0.0314 0.0302 0.00925 0.00506
(0.0260) (0.0259) (0.00927) (0.00819)
yeardum 0.114*** 0.112*** 0.0233*** 0.0199**
(0.0237) (0.0236) (0.00823) (0.00793)
Constant 1.244*** 1.237*** 1.150*** 1.058***
(0.247) (0.246) (0.257) (0.242)
AR(1)p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
AR(2)p-value 0.714 0.750 0.568 0.515
Hansen检验值 0.293 0.314 0.250 0.259
观测值数量 3,285 3,285 3,307 3,307
地级市数量 283 283 283 283
  投资、基础教育与人口集聚系统GMM回归 (1989-2004)
(1)
lnpopd
(2)
lnpopd
(3)
lnpopc
(4)
lnpopc
L.lnpopd 0.667*** 0.655***
(0.0425) (0.0449)
L.lnpopc 0.772*** 0.792***
(0.0529) (0.0499)
lninvcd 0.0507** 0.0508** 0.0358*** 0.0399***
(0.0244) (0.0256) (0.0123) (0.0129)
lnedumc 0.164*** 0.285*** 0.165*** 0.262***
(0.0421) (0.0547) (0.0422) (0.0591)
lnedumcsq -0.0198*** -0.0165***
(0.00509) (0.00552)
lnwaged 0.00755 0.00752
(0.0296) (0.0286)
lnwagec -0.0816*** -0.101***
(0.0283) (0.0276)
lnedupc -0.0927*** -0.0977***
(0.0195) (0.0195)
lnedupcc -0.0193*** -0.0239***
(0.00563) (0.00592)
coast 0.00542 0.00661 0.00163 -0.00669
(0.0317) (0.0309) (0.0110) (0.0101)
yeardum 0.0890*** 0.0911*** 0.0151* 0.0160*
(0.0223) (0.0225) (0.00851) (0.00891)
Constant 1.265*** 1.198*** 1.086*** 1.006***
(0.275) (0.266) (0.281) (0.264)
AR(1)p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
AR(2)p-value 0.657 0.626 0.992 0.889
Hansen检验值 0.648 0.244 0.172 0.193
观测值数量 2,403 2,403 2,412 2,412
地级市数量 224 224 224 224
  投资、基础教育与人口集聚系统GMM回归(稳健性检验)
变量名 含义 样本量 均值 标准误 最小值 最大值
popdregnu 拟合常住人口(全市) 1,713 412.228 317.434 20.012 3373.113
popcregnu 拟合常住人口(市区) 1,709 153.136 224.179 16.832 2103.477
lninvcdd 固定资产投资(全市) 1,716 14.795 0.967 12.509 17.699
lninvcdc 固定资产投资(市区) 1,714 13.914 1.169 10.280 17.598
lnedujmd 中学生数量(全市) 1,718 12.244 0.723 8.949 14.651
lnedujmc 中学生数量(市区) 1,716 10.993 0.757 7.901 13.671
lnwaged 平均工资(全市) 1,708 9.750 0.312 8.710 10.980
lnwagecd 平均工资(市区) 1,708 9.831 0.321 7.398 11.693
lnedupcd 每万人大学生数(全市) 1,656 4.339 1.109 1.319 7.135
lnedupcc 每万人大学生数(市区) 1,623 5.616 0.989 2.446 7.746
  变量的描述性统计(2005-2010)
(1)
lnpopdregnu
(2)
lnpopdregnu
(3)
lnpopcregnu
(4)
lnpopcregnu
L.lnpopdregnu 0.922*** 0.916***
(0.0336) (0.0322)
L.lnpopcregnu 0.880*** 0.867***
(0.0513) (0.0453)
lninvcdd 0.00269 0.00252
(0.00597) (0.00608)
lninvcdc 0.0286*** 0.0306***
(0.00904) (0.00906)
lnedujmd 0.0695** 0.0455
(0.0287) (0.0636)
lnedujmdsq 0.00118
(0.00275)
lnedujmc 0.0873** -0.260**
(0.0427) (0.113)
lnedujmcsq 0.0160**
(0.00654)
lnwaged 0.0445*** 0.0451***
(0.0164) (0.0165)
lnwagecd -0.0166 -0.0185
(0.0159) (0.0165)
lnedupcd 0.00276 0.00352
(0.00422) (0.00413)
lnedupcc 0.00681 0.00760*
(0.00462) (0.00433)
coast 0.00124 0.00195 0.00754 0.00780
(0.00490) (0.00498) (0.00874) (0.00806)
year2008 -0.00667* -0.00627* -0.00561 -0.00548
(0.00360) (0.00365) (0.00436) (0.00433)
Constant -0.864*** -0.720* -0.661** 1.257*
(0.244) (0.405) (0.304) (0.645)
AR(1)p-value 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
AR(2)p-value 0.997 0.977 0.203 0.190
Hansen检验值 0.103 0.093 0.301 0.283
观测值数量 1,372 1,372 1,338 1,338
地级市数量 279 279 277 277
  投资、基础教育与人口集聚系统GMM回归 (2005-2010)
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[1] 黄荣清. 北京市人口变动对基础教育的影响[J]. 人口与发展, 2006, 12(3): 57-60,51.
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