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人口与发展 - 2017, Vol. 23(4): 22-29
养老和社会保障研究
北京就业人口增长与轨道交通动态影响:基于DSP模型的研究
Employment Growth in Beijing and Dynamic Influence of Rail Transit: A Case Study Based on DSP Model

周文通, 孙铁山, 陆军
Wen-tong ZHOU, Tie-shan SUN, Jun LU

北京大学 政府管理学院,北京 100871
School of Government,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China

收稿日期: 2016-10-16
出版日期: 2018-01-12
2017, Vol. 23(4): 22-29
DOI: 10.13209/j.issn.1674-1668.2017.04.022


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摘要 

城市微观经济主体基于理性预期,可能对轨道交通网络扩张迅速做出反应;由于微观“刚性”的存在,微观主体的调整也可能是滞后的。以地面交通设施为参照,基于LISA分析和动态空间面板(DSP)模型,探讨轨道交通设施对北京不同行业就业人口增长的动态影响。结果表明:(1)对教育、卫生及金融业就业人口而言,轨道交通建设的促进作用是立竿见影的,而地面交通设施影响不显著。(2)对制造业和居民服务业就业人口而言,轨道交通影响不显著,地面交通的促进作用一部分是即时的,一部分是持续的。(3)对零售业就业和总就业来说,轨道交通和地面交通的动态影响,介于上述两种情况之间。

关键词 就业人口动态空间面板轨道交通地面交通    
Abstract

Urban micro-economic agents could or could not promptly react to the rail transit network expansion according to different theories.Based on LISA analysis and dynamic spatial panel (DSP) model,this paper discusses whether rail transit development has dynamic influence on sector-level employment growth in Beijing,compared with ground transportation development.The results show:(1) rail transit development in Beijing has immediate influence on education,healthcare,finance sectors’ employment;the influence of ground transportation is not significant.(2) in terms of manufacturing and residential service sectors’ employment,the benefit from Beijing rail transit network is not significant;the benefit from motorway network is partially prompt and partially persistent.(3) the dynamic influences of subway and motorway system on retail employment and total employment of Beijing fall in between the above two situations.

Key wordsemployment    dynamic spatial panel    rail transit    ground transportation
ZTFLH:  C913.32  
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目(41371005);国家社会科学基金项目(11AZD093)
作者简介:

作者简介:周文通(1985—),男,四川成都人,北京大学政府管理学院博士生,研究方向为城市经济与城市管理;孙铁山(1978—),男,内蒙古包头人,北京大学政府管理学院副教授,博士生导师,研究方向为城市与区域经济学,本文通讯作者。

  北京都市区就业人口LISA分析
自变量 总就业 制造业 教育卫生
S-GMM BC-QML S-GMM BC-QML S-GMM BC-QML
上期就业 0.744
[8.13]***
0.623
[12.47]***
0.497
[5.11]***
1.031
[19.14]***
0.438
[2.37]**
0.104
[2.01]**
当期轨道交通设施 0.047
[2.33]**
0.063
[2.77]***
-0.093
[-2.25]**
0.023
[0.59]
0.062
[3.01]***
0.056
[2.48]**
当期地面交通设施 -0.013
[-1.32]
-0.014
[-1.47]
-0.008
[-0.62]
-0.027
[-1.79]*
0.011
[0.98]
0.002
[0.21]
当期产业结构 -0.385
[-0.80]
-0.322
[-1.64]*
4.593
[9.20]***
4.489
[14.05]***
0.969
[2.41]**
0.951
[3.73]***
当期常住人口密度 0.333
[2.43]**
0.418
[3.01]***
0.757
[6.76]***
0.833
[3.81]***
0.736
[4.45]***
0.385
[2.84]***
当期流动人口占比 0.806
[2.36]**
0.339
[0.84]
0.999
[2.96]***
0.021
[0.032]
0.259
[1.05]
0.281
[0.7]
上期轨道交通设施 -0.046
[-1.32]
0.044
[0.79]
0.021
[0.62]
上期地面交通设施 -0.015
[-2.16]**
-0.033
[-2.96]***
-0.009
[-1.32]
上期产业结构 -0.196
[-1.01]
-3.874
[-9.56]***
-0.178
[-0.6]
上期常住人口密度 -0.015
[-0.15]
-0.464
[-3.04]***
0.42
[4.32]***
上期流动人口占比 -0.173
[-0.45]
0.19
[0.31]
0.178
[0.46]
就业空间滞后项 0.177
[3.12]***
0.014
[0.25]
0.146
[2.4]**
注:①***代表对应的参数估计值在1%置信水平下显著;**代表对应的参数估计值在5%置信水平下显著;*代表对应的参数估计值在10%置信水平下显著;方括号中为t统计量。②S-GMM代表System GMM估计方法;BC-QML代表基于Bias-corrected LSDV估计量的DSP估计方法。下同。
  北京市总就业及制造业、教育卫生业就业情况
自变量 居民服务业 零售和批发业 金融业
S-GMM BC-QML S-GMM BC-QML S-GMM BC-QML
上期就业 -0.017
[-0.11]
0.448
[8.85]***
0.451
[3.44]***
0.313
[6.55]***
0.404
[5.77]***
0.177
[4.61]***
当期轨道交通设施 0.006
[0.13]
0.048
[1.04]
0.04
[1.65]*
0.055
[1.72]*
0.134
[1.11]
0.141
[1.7]*
当期地面交通设施 -0.067
[-0.91]
-0.056
[-2.97]***
-0.033
[-1.97]**
-0.022
[-1.65]*
-0.026
[-0.70]
-0.017
[-0.51]
当期产业结构 4.446
[4.63]***
2.151
[4.38]***
3.584
[5.58]***
3.005
[8.9]***
20.679
[5.52]***
21.01
[10.37]***
当期常住人口密度 0.929
[3.61]***
0.75
[2.78]***
0.427
[1.72]*
0.695
[3.61]***
0.861
[2.61]***
0.315
[0.661]
当期流动人口占比 -1.697
[-2.19]**
-0.433
[-0.54]
1.986
[4.62]***
1.27
[2.27]**
8.748
[4.94]***
4.65
[3.175]***
上期轨道交通设施 -0.099
[-1.42]
0.005
[0.1]
-0.043
[-0.35]
上期地面交通设施 0.019
[1.35]
-0.02
[-2.01]**
-0.003
[-0.1]
上期产业结构 -1.665
[-2.65]***
-0.55
[-1.25]
-11.685
[-3.76]***
上期常住人口密度 -0.218
[-1.13]
-0.181
[-1.34]
0.95
[2.83]***
上期流动人口占比 0.562
[0.73]
-0.875
[-1.64]
-0.549
[-0.4]
就业空间滞后项 0.396
[7.57]***
0.433
[8.78]***
0.39
[7.91]***
  北京市居民服务业、零售业、金融业就业情况
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