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人口与发展 - 2017, Vol. 23(3): 14-24
金融发展对产业就业结构差异性影响——基于省际面板数据分析
The Influence of Financial Development on the Difference of Industrial Employment Structure——Based on Inter-Provincial Panel Data

林春
Chun LIN

辽宁大学 经济学院, 辽宁 沈阳 110036
School of Economics,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China

收稿日期: 2016-07-04
出版日期: 2018-03-20
2017, Vol. 23(3): 14-24


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摘要 

基于我国2000-2014年的31个省(市、自治区)的面板数据,采用系统矩估计方法,探讨了我国金融发展对三大产业就业的影响,得出结论如下:从全国来看,金融发展规模和金融深化程度均对第三产业就业具有显著的促进作用,而对第一、二产业就业却产生了抑制作用。进一步从地区层面来看,沿海地区的金融发展规模和金融深化程度均对第二、三产业就业具有显著的促进作用,而对第一产业就业却产生了抑制作用;内陆地区的金融发展规模和金融深化程度均对第三产业就业具有显著的促进作用,而对第一、二产业就业却产生了抑制作用。由此可见,金融发展对产业就业影响却因地区的发达程度不同而表现出较大的差异性。依据实证结论提出相关政策启示。

关键词 金融发展规模金融深化程度就业结构系统矩估计    
Abstract

This article makes use of 31 provinces’ (municipalities and autonomous regions) panel data from 2000 to 2014 in China,using the system GMM estimation method,to probe into the impact of the China’s financial development on the three major industrial employment.And the conclusion is that:from a national perspective,financial development scale and the degree of financial deepening have a significant role in promoting the employment of the tertiary industry,while it can produce inhibitory effect on the primary and secondary industries’ employment;Further from a regional perspective,in the coastal areas,financial development scale and the degree of financial deepening have a significant role in promoting the employment of the secondary and tertiary industries,while it has a inhibitory effect on the primary industry.In the inland areas,financial development scale and the degree of financial deepening can promote the employment of the tertiary industry,while it has an adverse effect on the primary and secondary industries’ employment.Therefore,the influence of financial development on the industrial employment structure is different because of the different level of development of regions.Finally,according to the empirical conclusion,this article proposes some policy implications.

Key wordsfinancial development scale    financial deepening degree    employment structure    SYS-GMM
ZTFLH:  F830.9  
作者简介:

作者简介:林春(1985—),男,辽宁黑山人,辽宁大学博士研究生,研究方向:金融发展理论与政策。

  金融发展促进产业就业的作用机制图
  全国产业就业结构变化趋势图
  沿海地区产业就业结构变化趋势图
  内陆地区产业就业结构变化趋势图
方程(1) 方程(2)
Esc1 Esc2 Esc3 Esc1 Esc2 Esc3
被解释变量
滞后一期
0.8535
(0.000)***
0.9084
(0.000)***
0.6910
(0.000)***
0.8310
(0.000)***
0.9445
(0.000)***
0.5990
(0.000)***
FIR -0.0013
(0.020)**
-0.0007
(0.038)**
0.0157
(0.000)***
FDD -0.0025
(0.000)***
-0.0014
(0.000)***
0.0102
(0.000)***
Labor 0.0033
(0.000)***
-0.0032
(0.000)***
0.0044
(0.000)***
0.0046
(0.000)***
-0.0035
(0.000)***
0.0067
(0.000)***
Economic 0.0027
(0.116)
-0.0035
(0.006)***
0.0027
(0.244)
0.0055
(0.000)***
-0.0012
(0.374)
0.0028
(0.024)**
Gov 0.0035
(0.441)
-0.0076
(0.121)
0.0017
(0.706)
0.0018
(0.639)
-0.0092
(0.008)***
0.0296
(0.000)***
Market -0.0030
(0.000)***
0.0040
(0.000)***
-0.0018
(0.002)***
-0.0044
(0.000)***
0.0028
(0.000)***
-0.0028
(0.000)***
Urbanization -0.1119
(0.000)***
0.0054
(0.486)
0.1035
(0.000)***
-0.1317
(0.000)***
0.0047
(0.382)
0.1793
(0.000)***
C 0.0757
(0.000)***
0.0576
(0.000)***
-0.0323
(0.047)**
0.0648
(0.000)***
0.0374
(0.005)***
-0.0216
(0.033)**
AR(2)检验P值 0.204 0.447 0.329 0.193 0.474 0.312
Hansen检验P值 0.406 0.518 0.413 0.232 0.433 0.293
  金融发展对产业就业结构差异性影响实证结果(全国)
方程(3) 方程(4)
Esc1 Esc2 Esc3 Esc1 Esc2 Esc3
被解释变量
滞后一期
0.8187
(0.000)***
1.3098
(0.000)***
0.5933
(0.000)***
0.8722
(0.000)***
0.8464
(0.000)***
0.4439
(0.000)***
FIR -0.0070
(0.004)***
0.0209
(0.000)***
0.0139
(0.013)**
FDD -0.0008
(0.091)*
0.0108
(0.000)***
0.0155
(0.000)***
Labor 0.0023
(0.368)
-0.0151
(0.000)***
0.0077
(0.535)
0.0055
(0.000)***
-0.0322
(0.001)***
0.0127
(0.004)***
Economic -0.0230
(0.000)***
0.0111
(0.004)***
0.0602
(0.002)***
-0.0135
(0.032)**
-0.1776
(0.028)**
0.0281
(0.001)***
Gov 0.2762
(0.000)***
0.1688
(0.081)*
0.1033
(0.301)
0.1056
(0.01)***
0.4065
(0.082)*
0.1664
(0.023)**
Market 0.0018
(0.053)*
-0.0068
(0.003)***
-0.0128
(0.000)***
0.0024
(0.955)
0.0380
(0.016)**
-0.0076
(0.000)***
Urbanization -0.1115
(0.006)***
-0.1359
(0.005)***
0.1037
(0.030)**
-0.1060
(0.019)**
0.1105
(0.024)**
0.1971
(0.000)***
C 0.2763
(0.000)***
-0.0105
(0.791)
-0.4931
(0.000)***
0.1560
(0.052)*
1.5863
(0.018)**
-0.2512
(0.000)***
AR(2)检验P值 0.673 0.519 0.177 0.313 0.272 0.227
Hansen检验P值 0.853 0.590 0.915 0.145 0.958 0.924
  金融发展对产业就业结构差异性影响实证结果(沿海)
方程(5) 方程(6)
Esc1 Esc2 Esc3 Esc1 Esc2 Esc3
被解释变量
滞后一期
0.8209
(0.000)***
0.7621
(0.000)***
0.8226
(0.000)***
0.7498
(0.000)***
-2.4408
(0.160)
1.0827
(0.000)***
FIR -0.0047
(0.015)**
-0.0036
(0.061)*
0.0050
(0.094)*
FDD -0.0210
(0.000)***
-0.0535
(0.012)**
0.0103
(0.094)*
Labor 0.0011
(0.557)
0.0020
(0.289)
0.0022
(0.357)
0.0004
(0.733)
0.0311
(0.053)*
-0.0018
(0.303)
Economic 0.0054
(0.045)**
-0.0049
(0.161)
-0.0105
(0.054)*
0.0041
(0.088)*
-0.0621
(0.104)
-0.0090
(0.004)***
Gov -0.0031
(0.470)
0.0112
(0.003)***
0.0225
(0.073)*
-0.0041
(0.06)*
0.0424
(0.057)*
0.0090
(0.194)*
Market -0.0038
(0.000)***
0.0046
(0.002)***
0.0027
(0.055)*
-0.0062
(0.000)***
0.0441
(0.080)*
0.0029
(0.001)***
Urbanization -0.1087
(0.011)**
-0.0110
(0.611)
0.0585
(0.088)*
-0.1303
(0.001)***
0.4915
(0.064)*
-0.0337
(0.250)
C 0.0973
(0.001)***
0.0619
(0.037)**
0.0820
(0.069)*
0.1691
(0.000)***
0.5298
(0.114)
0.0735
(0.010)***
AR(2)检验P值 0.220 0.800 0.650 0.217 0.755 0.211
Hansen检验P值 0.868 0.254 0.297 0.265 0.244 0.388
  金融发展对产业就业结构差异性影响实证结果(内陆)
全国 沿海 内陆
Esc1 Esc2 Esc3 Esc1 Esc2 Esc3 Esc1 Esc2 Esc3
被解释变量滞后
一期
0.8943
(0.000)***
0.8818
(0.000)***
0.6258
(0.000)***
1.2146
(0.000)***
0.6370
(0.000)***
0.7707
(0.000)***
0.9661
(0.000)***
0.7835
(0.000)***
0.7872
(0.000)***
FTFP -0.0101
(0.000)***
-0.0048
(0.000)***
0.0047
(0.000)***
-0.0203
(0.003)***
0.0236
(0.007)***
0.0067
(0.042)**
0.0184
(0.008)***
-0.0050
(0.022)**
0.0198
(0.000)***
Labor 0.0040
(0.000)***
-0.0052
(0.000)***
0.0081
(0.000)***
0.0077
(0.05)**
-0.0125
(0.008)***
0.0111
(0.001)***
0.0036
(0.095)*
0.0025
(0.129)
-0.0009
(0.693)
Economic 0.0039
(0.006)***
-0.0027
(0.195)
0.0060
(0.021)**
-0.0343
(0.002)***
0.0321
(0.000)***
0.0101
(0.078)*
0.0046
(0.251)
-0.0058
(0.091)*
-0.0095
(0.007)***
Gov -0.0037
(0.093)*
-0.0106
(0.047)**
0.0284
(0.000)***
0.0753
(0.379)
-0.4574
(0.009)***
0.0288
(0.330)
-0.0059
(0.071)*
0.0065
(0.018)**
0.0274
(0.023)**
Market -0.0026
(0.000)***
0.0045
(0.000)***
-0.0039
(0.000)***
0.0085
(0.009)***
0.0017
(0.609)
-0.0043
(0.007)***
-0.0020
(0.015)**
0.0043
(0.000)***
0.0019
(0.091)*
Urbanization -0.0906
(0.000)***
0.0199
(0.036)**
0.2014
(0.000)***
0.1665
(0.068)*
0.1069
(0.054)*
0.1061
(0.001)***
-0.0098
(0.822)
-0.0056
(0.807)
0.1095
(0.000)***
C 0.0162
(0.250)
0.0558
(0.000)***
-0.0733
(0.000)***
0.0221
(0.834)
-0.1200
(0.000)***
-0.1379
(0.005)***
-0.0673
(0.036)**
0.0588
(0.029)**
0.1137
(0.000)***
AR(2)检验P值 0.19 0.593 0.34 0.391 0.954 0.213 0.201 0.454 0.504
Hansen 检验P值 0.447 0.47 0.204 0.461 0.816 0.627 0.498 0.088 0.295
  金融发展对产业就业结构差异性影响实证结果(稳健性检验)
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[1] 王传荣, 钱乃余. 全球化进程中世界就业若干特征分析[J]. 人口与发展, 2007, 13(1): 87-91.
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